Helm Index / GatedIndex
The strategy.
The evidence.
A regime-gated basket of major cryptocurrencies. The rule adjusts exposure as trend conditions change. Read the historical test and its limits together.
Explore the demo$10,000 invested Jan 2021 — hypothetical, validated backtest
Helm Index and Bitcoin, buy & hold · through Apr 5, 2026
Replay both strategies or drag the timeline. Values shown rounded to the nearest $100.
Backtest period & methodology
275 weekly closes from Jan 3, 2021 to Apr 5, 2026. Both series use the existing January 1, 2021 normalization at $10,000; that starting point is an investment anchor, not an extra weekly observation.
Historical validation artifact · 11 major coins · fees modeled. Final values before display rounding: Helm Index $51,103; Bitcoin $23,278.
Hypothetical backtest results are not live-money results and do not predict future returns.
Live forward test
Live since April 2026.
The Helm Index runs live on the founder's own funds since April 2026, a forward test in progress and currently in drawdown. Everyone else runs it on paper. The backtest above is history; the live posture is on the account dashboard.
How the rule works
Exposure follows
the regime.
Equal-weighted holdings, volatility targeting, and a trend gate. The goal is to manage exposure to crypto markets.
Read the methodologyObserve
The gate checks how much of the universe is trading above its 50-day average.
Allocate
When the condition permits exposure, the basket targets equal weights with volatility adjustment.
Step aside
The gate moves to cash when the trend condition fails. Re-entry follows the same rule.
Rebalance
The existing strategy uses a 72-hour rebalance cadence. Between rebalances, individual assets still carry market risk.
The limits belong beside the chart.
It dampens bears, it does not erase them
It sits in cash 47–57% of the time and whipsaws often
No per-position stop — single-name bag-holding risk
PBO is borderline
Historical evidence is not a live account
Inspect the saved validation.
Historical artifact · 2026-04-05Calendar-year maximum drawdown
| Year | Helm Index | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -13% | -53% |
| 2022 | -14% | -67% |
| 2023 | -12% | -20% |
| 2024 | -26% | -26% |
| 2025 | -17% | -32% |
| 2026 | -11% | -35% |
Overfitting & walk-forward checks
11-major 2021–2026
DSR survives deflation for the entire sprint's search breadth (~100 configs), not just the 15-config gate grid. CSCV math independently verified against scipy + a López de Prado reference + a noise/dominant sanity test. PBO passes (<0.5) but the CSCV noise floor is ~0.40, so the margin is thinner than it looks.
Shipped config, 500 permutations — the observed result beat all 500 random relabelings (p < 0.002 at this resolution; the gate requires p < 0.10). Artifact re-run 2026-07-06.
Every figure here is a historical validation artifact, not a yield or return guarantee. Past performance does not predict future results.
Bear-window evidence
2018 · 4-name (BTC/ETH/LTC/BNB)
Gated index: -3%. Same index without the gate: -34%. Bitcoin: -73%. Mostly in cash through the 2018 bear.
2022 · 11-major
Gated index: -2.0% (window return). Same index without the gate: -35.0%. Bitcoin: -64.0%. ~100% cash on 69% of rebalances.
Window returns and calendar-year drawdowns measure different things. Every figure here is a historical validation artifact, not a yield or return guarantee. Past performance does not predict future results.
Historical cash windows
The cash windows above are from the 11-major 2021–2026 backtest; the 2018 bear is shown in the bear-protection cards.